The year did not move the tonnage needle in any dramatic direction. Hampton Roads and Baltimore together exported ~63M tons — within 1% of the prior year and approximately +28% above the 2022 baseline. That stability is, itself, the story. The emergency demand that drove USEC volumes sharply higher in 2022 and 2023 — European utilities rebuilding stockpiles after Russian supply was sanctioned, Australian mine disruptions redirecting Asian steel mills toward Appalachian alternatives — has fully unwound. What has settled into place is something more durable: a trade anchored by long-term blast furnace supply contracts, premium coal grades that command loyalty from buyers, and two ports that have quietly become among the most consequential bulk export facilities in the world.
69% of all USEC exports in 2025 were metallurgical coal — coking-grade product destined for blast furnaces, not power plants. That fraction is a structural characteristic, not a cyclical fluctuation. Metallurgical coal demand tracks crude steel output, and crude steel output tracks capital investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. Hampton Roads and Baltimore function, in that sense, as an industrial barometer for global manufacturing health.
The most consequential development of the year occurred off the water entirely. In December 2024, Arch Resources and CONSOL Energy completed a merger to form Core Natural Resources — the largest US coal producer by combined output. The new entity entered 2025 with loading positions at both Hampton Roads and Baltimore simultaneously, a degree of terminal concentration with no recent precedent in the USEC export complex. The integration was visible in the shipping record through the year: Alpha, Arch, and CONSOL shipment identities consolidating, gradually, under a single banner.
Where the Coal Went
Four countries absorbed the majority of all USEC coal exports in 2025: India, Brazil, the Netherlands, and China. No single secondary market approached the scale of any one of these four. The destinations are more concentrated than they were five years ago — a pattern consistent with the long-term supply contract structure that governs how blast furnace coal is purchased.
India is the only major destination purchasing significant volumes of both metallurgical and thermal coal from US East Coast ports simultaneously. Blast furnace coking coal flows to integrated steelworks at Visakhapatnam, Jamshedpur, and Bhilai. High-BTU thermal bituminous flows to coastal power utilities. The split reflects India's simultaneous expansion of industrial steel capacity and electricity generation infrastructure, and it has made India the leading USEC destination by volume in every year since 2021.
Brazil's import book is a pure metallurgical programme. Domestic hard coking coal is absent, and integrated steelmakers — including Gerdau, CSN, and Ternium — rely entirely on imported blend components. Hampton Roads to Atlantic Brazil is a direct haul requiring no canal transit, and multi-year supply contracts provide the volume stability that makes Brazil one of the most predictable USEC destinations year on year. The route is among the most logistically efficient in the global seaborne coal trade.
Netherlands tonnage is primarily Rotterdam in transit — coal arriving for blending and onward distribution to ArcelorMittal's Belgian and Dutch steelworks, or movement up the Rhine to German and French buyers. ArcelorMittal is the most prominent buyer in the USEC shipping record overall, operating blast furnaces across Belgium, France, Spain, and Brazil, none of which have access to domestic coking coal. Spain and Italy record near-pure metallurgical imports as Iberian and Mediterranean steel producers supplement declining European domestic coal supply with Appalachian coking grades.
China and Japan represent the premium-grade corridor. Both are purchasing high-CSR, low-volatile coking coal for blast furnaces operating to stringent quality specifications. The round-Cape freight to Japan runs $38–$52 per metric ton — the highest freight cost in the USEC export matrix — but the premium grades destined for Japanese furnaces carry margins sufficient to absorb it. The consistency of these supply relationships, maintained across multiple price cycles, reflects how deeply Appalachian low-vol HCC is embedded in Far East blast furnace blend specifications.
The steel mill buyer set behind these flows is anchored by a small number of very large programmes. Indian state steelmakers SAIL and RINL have systematically expanded US supply relationships as a hedge against concentration in Australian origins — a strategy that accelerated after the Australia-China trade disruptions reshuffled global met coal flows in 2020–2021. Shipments linked to what the market understands to be Adani Group entities appeared in the USEC buyer set in 2025 — if confirmed, procurement at that scale would reflect committed greenfield steelmaking capacity coming into production, not opportunistic spot purchasing. SSAB's Swedish and Finnish furnaces operate to stringent low-sulfur, low-volatile specifications that only a limited number of global mines can satisfy. Metinvest of Ukraine has sustained USEC procurement through redirected supply chains despite significant operational disruption — an illustration of how blast furnace coal relationships function on multi-year contractual frameworks that absorb short-term market dislocations.
On the thermal side, JERA — Japan's largest power generator — exemplifies the stable, long-horizon buyer. Multi-year supply agreements with Northern Appalachian producers underpin consistent Baltimore volumes that persist through spot market cycles. Morocco and Egypt, as noted, represent the structural demand growth that is absorbing Northern Appalachian thermal coal as US domestic utility consumption declines.
The Infrastructure Behind It
Hampton Roads and Baltimore are not interchangeable. They serve different parts of the same trade, connected by geography, geology, and the railroad systems that link Appalachian mines to tidewater. Hampton Roads handled 62% of all USEC exports in 2025, with 83% of that volume classified as metallurgical coal. Baltimore's share was the remainder — a predominantly thermal book, served exclusively by CSX, with metallurgical coal representing approximately 46% of throughput.
Within Hampton Roads, terminal specialisation is pronounced. Dominion Terminal Associates operated as a near-pure metallurgical loading point in 2025 — the primary berth for Core Natural Resources' coking coal programme following the Arch-CONSOL merger. NS Lamberts Point, the largest coal export terminal in the Northern Hemisphere by throughput capacity and capable of accommodating Capesize vessels at full draught, moved a predominantly metallurgical book with a small crossover fraction. Pier IX at Newport News handled the most diversified mix, receiving both CAPP coking coal and crossover-specification material that prices into metallurgical or thermal markets depending on the prevailing spread.
At Baltimore, the Core Natural Resources merger placed a single entity in effective control of both Curtis Bay loading positions simultaneously. By mid-year, consolidated shipments under the Core banner had surpassed legacy CONSOL volumes as pre-existing contracts transitioned to the new operating structure. The March 2024 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge closed Baltimore's main shipping channel for eleven weeks, but the Curtis Bay berths — accessed via the outer Chesapeake Bay approach — maintained export operations through the closure using barge lightering and rerouted vessel calls; full-year 2025 volumes confirmed the port's throughput capacity was not permanently impaired.
All coal loaded at both ports originates in the Appalachian coalfields and moves exclusively by rail to tidewater. The specific corridor a mine connects to determines everything downstream: which port it can serve, which terminal receives it, which ocean market it can reach. NS's Pocahontas Division runs approximately 350 miles from the coalfields centred on Williamson, West Virginia — the heart of the CAPP low-volatile hard coking coal district — through Roanoke and into Hampton Roads. The geology along this corridor produces the premium coking grades that steel mills in Brazil, Japan, and Europe require as blast furnace blend components. NS Lamberts Point and Dominion Terminal Associates sit at the tidal end of this line.
CSX's primary Appalachian route to Baltimore follows the former Baltimore & Ohio mainline, climbing Sand Patch Grade near Cumberland before descending into the Northern Appalachian fields of southwestern Pennsylvania. Core Natural Resources' Bailey Mine and Enlow Fork complex supply directly to Curtis Bay via this corridor — a haul of approximately 200 rail miles, shorter than the Hampton Roads run, providing a cost offset for a coal grade that does not command metallurgical premiums. A second CSX route — the Cardinal Corridor through Huntington, West Virginia to Newport News — feeds Pier IX with Central Appalachian crossover-specification coal that floats between the two markets depending on the prevailing price spread.
For both Class I railroads, coal remains the single most significant bulk commodity by revenue. Norfolk Southern recorded approximately $1.57 billion in coal revenue in 2024 — roughly 13% of total operating revenue — with export met coal the primary driver. CSX's coal book is larger still: approximately $2.25 billion in 2024, or roughly 15–16% of total revenue, reflecting the combined weight of NAPP thermal exports through Baltimore and CAPP met exports through Newport News. For CSX, coal is the single largest commodity segment by revenue. Any sustained shift in export volumes registers directly in quarterly rail earnings — a structural linkage that makes the carrier as much a stakeholder in global steel demand cycles as the mines it serves.
What It Costs to Move Coal to Water
Appalachian coking coal is priced on a free-on-board basis at Hampton Roads or Baltimore. Low-volatile hard coking coal from CAPP and the Warrior Basin traded in the range of $170–$210 per metric ton FOB Hampton Roads through most of 2025 — significantly off the $280–$340 range seen in 2022. Mid-volatile HCC settled in the $145–$180 range. High-vol A and B specifications traded at $120–$150 FOB, competitive with Australian mid-vol on a blend-adjusted basis. Baltimore thermal bituminous — NAPP high-BTU coal from Core's Bailey and Enlow Fork complex — traded in the $75–$100 per metric ton FOB range through 2025, a significant reduction from the 2022 peak above $300. At these levels, the spread between NAPP thermal and CAPP met coking coal ran approximately $70–$110 per ton FOB — the incentive that drives crossover-specification material toward the metallurgical market whenever quality specifications allow.
| Grade | Origin | 2025 FOB USEC | 2022 Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-Vol HCC | CAPP / Warrior Basin | $170–$210/MT | $280–$340 |
| Mid-Vol HCC | CAPP | $145–$180/MT | $240–$290 |
| High-Vol A/B | CAPP / NAPP crossover | $120–$150/MT | $200–$250 |
| Thermal bituminous | NAPP | $75–$100/MT | $280–$350 |
Ocean freight ran well below the 2021–2022 surge levels across all USEC routes. The trans-Atlantic haul to Rotterdam — the shortest voyage in the matrix — ran $10–$18 per metric ton, making European steel mills the natural marginal buyer when met coal premiums justify the FOB price. India is the highest-freight major destination at $22–$32 per metric ton, offset by consistent and large demand from multiple import terminals on both coasts. The round-Cape voyage to Japan and South Korea ran $38–$52 per metric ton — the highest freight cost in the matrix — absorbed by premium-grade margins on low-vol HCC.
| Route | Vessel | 2025 Freight (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Hampton Roads → Rotterdam | Capesize / Panamax | $10–$18/MT |
| Hampton Roads → Brazil | Panamax | $12–$17/MT |
| Hampton Roads → India | Capesize / Panamax | $22–$32/MT |
| Hampton Roads → Japan / Korea | Panamax (via Cape) | $38–$52/MT |
Rail is the dominant cost in the mine-to-ship stack. Unit train movements from Central Appalachian origins to Hampton Roads ran approximately $18–$24 per short ton in 2025. NAPP to Baltimore via CSX is a shorter corridor at approximately $14–$19. Combined mine-to-ship cost for CAPP low-vol HCC loading at Hampton Roads runs approximately $24–$30 per metric ton — well within the margin available at $170–$210 FOB. US metallurgical coal exports averaged approximately 45–55 million short tons annually in 2024–2025, with USEC terminals accounting for approximately 65–70% of that total. The remaining 30–35% moves through Gulf Coast terminals at higher rail cost to origin but with access to Panama Canal routing for Pacific markets.
What 2025 Tells Us
The structural story from 2025 is one of market entrenchment, not retreat. Total volumes are off the emergency highs of 2022 and 2023, but the trade is durable. The destinations are more concentrated — India, Brazil, and Europe now account for the majority of all USEC throughput. The supply side is more concentrated too: Core Natural Resources enters 2026 controlling production assets across both the CAPP coking belt and the NAPP thermal complex, with captive loading positions at both major ports. No other Appalachian exporter currently replicates that structural position.
The reported appearance of Adani Group-linked entities in the USEC buyer set is perhaps the most significant demand-side signal of the year. A company widely understood to be building greenfield steelmaking capacity in India at scale does not enter new long-term coal supply relationships opportunistically. That procurement, if the market attribution is correct, reflects a view about where steel demand will be in five years — not where spot prices are today. It is a useful corrective to the narrative that coal demand is in structural decline, at least in the blast furnace segment.
The risk that deserves attention is not on the demand side. Steel production is growing in India, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, and coking coal requirements grow with it. The risk is supply-side concentration: Core Natural Resources controlling a material share of Appalachian coking coal production and multiple Hampton Roads loading positions means that any significant operational disruption — flood, strike, geological event — now carries a larger market footprint than it would have five years ago. The physical infrastructure provides a buffer: NS Lamberts Point at approximately 48 million short ton annual capacity is a facility built for a larger world than the one it currently serves. Whether that headroom is a legacy artefact or a platform for resumed growth is the question the next demand cycle will answer.